Simulating the effects of rural development policies on land use: Evidence from spatially explicit modeling in the central highlands of vietnam

Abstract

Land cover, the spectral characteristics of the earth surface, and land use, the operational employment on that land, are closely related. However, there is also a clear distinction between land use and land cover. While land cover refers to the biophysical earth surface, land use is shaped by human, socioeconomic and political influences on the land [7]. In essence, land use links land cover to the human activities that transform the landscape [15]. In most practical applications the analysis of satellite images are used to infer land use from land cover. Land use is a common phenomenon associated with population growth, market development, technical and institutional innovation, and related rural development policy. This paper attempts to assess the impact of policy, technology, socioeconomic, and geophysical conditions on land use in the last decade and combines data from a village-level survey with remote sensing data derived from Landsat images. Our objective is to analyze the influence of these explanatory variables on land use using a reduced-form, spatially explicit multinomial logit model. Simulations are then carried out to assess the effects of three policy scenarios of rural development on land use. An empirical application is presented for two districts of Dak Lak province in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. Dak Lak exhibits an interesting case in the study of land use dynamics with its abundant forest resources, ethnic diversity, high immigration rates and dynamic agricultural and socioeconomic development. In particular, the last decade was characterized by rapid, labor- and capitalintensive growth in the agricultural sector. © 2009 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.