Large-deviation properties of resilience of power grids

Abstract

We study the distributions of the resilience of power flow models against transmission line failures via a so-called backup capacity. We consider three ensembles of random networks, and in addition, the topology of the British transmission power grid. The three ensembles are Erdös-Rényi random graphs, Erdös-Rényi random graphs with a fixed number of links, and spatial networks where the nodes are embedded in a two-dimensional plane. We numerically investigate the probability density functions (pdfs) down to the tails to gain insight into very resilient and very vulnerable networks. This is achieved via large-deviation techniques, which allow us to study very rare values that occur with probability densities below 10-160. We find that the right tail of the pdfs towards larger backup capacities follows an exponential with a strong curvature. This is confirmed by the rate function, which approaches a limiting curve for increasing network sizes. Very resilient networks are basically characterized by a small diameter and a large power sign ratio. In addition, networks can be made typically more resilient by adding more links.