Soil temperature estimation with meteorological parameters by using tree-based hybrid data mining models

Abstract

The temperature of the soil at different depths is one of the most important factors used in different disciplines, such as hydrology, soil science, civil engineering, construction, geotechnology, ecology, meteorology, agriculture, and environmental studies. In addition to physical and spatial variables, meteorological elements are also effective in changing soil temperatures at different depths. The use of machine-learning models is increasing day by day in many complex and nonlinear branches of science. These data-driven models seek solutions to complex and nonlinear problems using data observed in the past. In this research, decision tree (DT), gradient boosted trees (GBT), and hybrid DT-GBT models were used to estimate soil temperature. The soil temperatures at 5, 10, and 20 cm depths were estimated using the daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperature; sunshine intensity and duration, and precipitation data measured between 1993 and 2018 at Divrigi station in Sivas province in Turkey. To predict the soil temperature at different depths, the time windowing technique was used on the input data. According to the results, hybrid DT-GBT, GBT, and DT methods estimated the soil temperature at 5 cm depth the most successfully, respectively. However, the best estimate was obtained with the DT model at soil depths of 10 and 20 cm. According to the results of the research, the accuracy rate of the models has also increased with increasing soil depth. In the prediction of soil temperature, sunshine duration and air temperature were determined as the most important factors and precipitation was the most insignificant meteorological variable. According to the evaluation criteria, such as Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, R, MAE, RMSE, and Taylor diagrams used, it is recommended that all three (DT, GBT, and hybrid DT-GBT) data-based models can be used for predicting soil temperature.