Can New Housing Supply Mitigate Displacement and Exclusion?: Evidence from Los Angeles and San Francisco

Abstract

Problem, research strategy, and findings: The housing affordability crisis is exacerbating displacement and exclusion in built-up urban neighborhoods. Although new housing development might help, it faces local opposition. Researchers have struggled to inform this debate because of data challenges, so we constructed a unique database on construction and household-level mobility to determine how development affects displacement and exclusion in the subsequent 5 years in Los Angeles (a typical coastal “hot market” in California) and San Francisco (the extreme “superstar city” case in California). We found that developing new market-rate housing generally helped slightly to alleviate both displacement and exclusion pressures for low-income households in Los Angeles and helped increase in-migration into weaker market neighborhoods in San Francisco. But particularly in the hottest markets, the new market-rate units could fail to spur low- and moderate-income households’ in-migration and exacerbate their out-migration. Likewise, the positive impacts of the new market-rate units may fade over time. Subsidized housing generally mitigated both exclusion and displacement slightly in most markets. Future research should examine long-term effects in a variety of contexts, controlling for the role of housing policies such as rent stabilization. Takeaway for practice: Market-rate housing development may help alleviate rent pressures locally and regionally, but it is not sufficient to address displacement and exclusion at the neighborhood level. Because new production helps to mitigate displacement and exclusion in some contexts but exacerbates it in others, planners need to understand the market and neighborhood context for development. In addition to supporting more market-rate and subsidized housing development through zoning and fiscal tools, planners should implement complementary policies such as housing preservation and tenant protections.