Stochastic techno-economic analysis of the production of aviation biofuel from oilseeds

Abstract

Background: The economic viability of hydrodeoxygenation process using Camelina, Carinata and Jatropha feedstocks for aviation biofuel production was evaluated for two product profiles: (i) maximum diesel production and (ii) maximum jet fuel production (HRJ). Results: Deterministic analysis of Camelina and Carinata diesel facilities returned positive NPVs and IRRs of 25 and 18%, respectively. Stochastic analysis suggested that the probabilities of positive NPVs were 75, 59 and 15%, respectively, for Camelina, Carinata and Jatropha diesel plants. Jet fuel facilities presented probabilities of loss of 98, 99 and 100% for Camelina, Carinata and Jatropha scenarios, respectively. Sensitivity analysis determined that financial performance was majorly influenced by feedstock and fuel prices. Categories of subsidies to enhance the attractiveness of the projects were studied. Conclusions: Camelina, Carinata and Jatropha plants targeting HRJ required incentives of 0.31, 0.39 and 0.61 US/L of biofuel produced, respectively, to reduce the probabilities of loss to approximately 30%.