The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide

Abstract

In this chapter, we describe the development, validation, replication, and recommended forensic application of the actuarial Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). We specifically address its application in the United States which is the main focus of this volume. Among psychologists, the fundamental rationale for actuarial violence risk assessment owes its origin more than a half century ago to the recognition that actuarial techniques are more accurate than clinical judgment experience, and intuition. This is especially true for violence risk. The general empirical superiority of comprehensive forensic actuarial tools over unaided clinical judgment is now beyond responsible debate. The SORAG is actuarial inasmuch as the items were selected based on their measured relationships with outcomes in specific development samples, and scores are accompanied by tables of measured recidivism rates (experience tables) and percentiles also based on large samples. In this context, the meaning of 'actuarial' excludes certain other mechanical or formulaic ways of yielding numerical scores that are not based on measured relationships in development samples and that do not provide experience/outcome tables and percentile norms. Before we discuss the system specifically, we address one forensic issue that arises when an actuarial tool such as the SORAG is used in the United States. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)