Getting Old Before Getting Rich (and not Fully Realizing It): Premature Ageing and the Demographic Momentum in Southeast Asia

Abstract

The Southeast Asian countries Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines witnessed an enormous demographic transition within a very short period of time. One major future problem for emerging economies such as Indonesia or the Philippines—which have not yet reached a middle-income country status and where poverty is still widespread—could be that economic growth stalls before they transition into high-income status. Getting old before getting rich is therefore one of the biggest medium-term structural challenges for all three Southeast Asian countries. After a concise analysis of the major demographic trends in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, the author provides a condensed explanation for the respective population developments. Then, tentative conclusions about the demographic implications for all the three countries in a comparative perspective will be drawn. The focus lies on the challenges which occurred in relation to the pension system, the labour market, the migration movements, the urbanization as well as the consequences of demographic change in different regions and among different ethnic/religious groups in the respective countries.