Cascade of building codes: Analysis of scenarios for energy efficiency

Abstract

Accurate estimates of a countrys energy demand are of fundamental importance for the formulation of energy policy. Developments in the last decade indicate that reducing energy demand is imperative. Since the residential building sector is a major contributor to this demand, political decision makers address this sector intensively. The availability of high energy-efficiency in legal building standards therefore assumes a domain role. However, the formation of standards in such socio-economic systems is a complex process of innovation and diffusion, and consequently is not easily understood. This chapter reports on a dynamic simulation model that was developed expressly to study the mutual intensification of the legal and voluntary building codes for the revelatory case of Switzerland. Based on an endogenous innovation, diffusion, and standardization (IDS) cycle, the model is able to explain the intensification of voluntary and legal building codes with regard to their level of energy efficiency. The model first reproduces the historical situation, and is then used to estimate the possible impact of scenarios and administrative intervention on energy efficiency in building codes and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions until the year 2050. Simulation results show that administrative support of supply-side agents has the potential to stimulate improvements in building regulations in the long-term. The chapter concludes that continuously institutionalizing voluntary standards is important for the intensification of the legal standard as well as for the development of energy efficiency in the residential building sector. Moreover, it demonstrates that a well-balanced scheme of incentives is required to positively influence the system development and reduce protective actions by incumbent agents. Furthermore, the chapter concludes with policy implications, theoretical insights, and possible future uses of the model. The models treatment of co-evolution stems from a single case, but we propose that it is also applicable to other developments in legal and voluntary institutions.