Bayes Theorem and Forward Chaining Method On Expert System for Determine Hypercholesterolemia Drugs

Abstract

The development of technology capable to imitating the process of human thinking  and led to a new branch of computer science named the expert system. One of the problem that can be solved by an expert system is selecting hypercholesterolemia drugs.  Drug selection starts from find the symptoms and then determine the best drug for the patient. This is consist with the mechanism of forward chaining which starts from searching for information about the symptoms, and then try to illustrate the conclusions. To accommodate the missing fact, expert systems can be complemented with the Bayes theorem that provides a simple rule for calculating the conditional probability so the accuracy of the method approaches the accuracy of the experts. This reseacrh uses 30 training data and 76 testing data of medical record that use hypercholesterolemia drugs from Tugurejo Hospital of Semarang. The variable are common symptoms and some hypercholesterolemia drugs. This research obtained a selection of hypercholesterolemia drugs system with 96.05% accuracy