Variations in Landslide Frequency Due to Climate Changes Through High Resolution Euro-CORDEX Ensemble

Abstract

The paper presents the main findings of a research aimed to provide probabilistic projections about the variation of local weather patterns recognized as relevant for triggering of rainfall-induced landslide events affecting pyroclastic covers in Campania Region (Southern Italy). The study focuses on the municipality of Nocera Inferiore affected by several events (1960, 1972, 1997 and 2005). Euro-CORDEX multimodel ensemble at high resolution (about 12 km on the area of interest) provides daily precipitation data weighted on the basis of the performances and scenario consistency through the REA (Reliability Ensemble Averaging) method proposed by Giorgi and Mearns (2002). The results indicate a general worsening of the slope stability conditions in the investigated area up 2100 under the two different concentration scenarios. The developed approach is easily deployable for all impact studies and then it could represent a valuable tool in developing effective adaptation strategies and proper prioritizations of interventions to cope with Climate Changes.