Dividend Changes and Future Profitability: Evidence from the Turkish Stock Market

Abstract

Most of the previous studies on dividends in Turkey have focused on the effects of dividend announcements. There has been no study investigating the relation between dividend changes and the future profitability of firms. This study investigates this relation by using both ordinary and panel data regression on a data set consisting of 1,239 dividend payouts from 123 companies listed in Borsa Istanbul during the period 2004-2014. This study is unable to demonstrate that dividend changes are related to changes in future earnings. No evidence is found to support the dividend signaling theory, which claims that dividends serve as indicators of the future profitability of firms. On the other hand, future profitability is found to be strongly correlated with profitability in the previous year.