The Projections of Climate Change using Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) in Bali - Indonesia

Abstract

Research on climate change was conducted in Bali, Indonesia, using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), which works with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. The history data means average data from 1971 to 2000, climate projections with RCP4.5 scenario means average data from 2040 to 2069, and anomaly (climate change) is RCP4.5 minus history. The results represent the history of temperature between 22.5-27.5 0C and the projection between 25.5-29.5 0C. Temperature anomalies can be observed in much of northern Bali, which has increased from about 1.6 to 2.9 0C. There is a trend towards reduced (drier) humidity in most parts of Bali, particularly in the northern part of Bali. In contrast, a small amount in the south increases the (wetter) humidity. The comfort index of the Bali region in history is still relatively comfortable (20-26 0C). The projection condition RCP 4.5, there is no comfortable area with an index of more than 26 0C (hot and dry).