Housing market analysis using a hierarchical–spatial approach: The case of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Abstract

The paper analyzes the determinants of apartments’ prices in Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil, with the use of hierarchical models, spatial models and a hierarchical-spatial approach. Besides the apartments’ characteristics, such as area, age and building standard, prices were determined by local urban amenities. The hierarchical models indicated that local variables, such as urban violence, infrastructure and services, explained over 75% of prices’ remaining variability. The spatial models analyzed if, after controlling for price variability with the explanatory variables in the second level of the hierarchical models, spatial correlations still existed in price determination. The positive and significant spatial coefficient in spatial autoregressive models (SAR) indicated spatial dependency. The hierarchical-spatial approach showed that over 70% of apartment prices’ remaining variability could be explained by local variables and that the lagged urban services variable explained another 12% of this variability.