A Mathematical Study of a Generalized SEIR Model of COVID-19

Abstract

In this work (Part I), we reinvestigate the study of the stability of the Covid-19 mathematical model constructed by Shah et al. (2020) [1]. In their paper, the transmission of the virus under different control strategies is modeled thanks to a generalized SEIR model. This model is characterized by a five dimensional nonlinear dynamical system, where the basic reproduction number can be established by using the next generation matrix method. In this work (Part I), it is established that the disease free equilibrium point is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable when . When , the local and global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium are determined employing the second additive compound matrix approach and the Li-Wang’s (1998) stability criterion  for real matrices [2]. In the second paper (Part II), some control parameters with uncertainties will be added to stabilize the five-dimensional Covid-19 system studied here, in order to force the trajectories to go to the equilibria. The stability of the Covid-19 system with these new parameters will also be assessed in Intissar (2020) [3] applying the Li-Wang criterion and compound matrices theory. All sophisticated technical calculations including those in part I will be provided in appendices of the part II.