Evaluation of WRF Parameterization Schemes During Heat-Wave Events Over the Greater Area of South–East Mediterranean

Abstract

Heat-waves are strongly connected with environmental, health and socioeconomic impacts. The frequency of occurrence and the intensity of those events tend to increase across the Mediterranean due to climate change. Numerical weather prediction models are considered to be an important tool for predicting heat-wave events. Additionally, they are suitable for studying human biometeorology. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under different physical options during heat-wave events taking place in the greater area of South–East Mediterranean, considering also the impacts on human thermal comfort. For this, 15 heat-wave events (52 total heat-wave days) were identified in a 10-year period (2004–2013). Seven (7) alternative model configurations were tested on a 6 km horizontal resolution domain and the results for air temperature, wind speed and vapor pressure were compared against ground-based observations. The micro-scale RayMan model was also employed, in order to evaluate predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). Results show that under certain physics options WRF is capable of reproducing successfully the key characteristics of the examined heat-wave episodes.[2]