Exploring the Factors Influencing Traffic Accidents: An Analysis of Black Spots and Decision Tree for Injury Severity

Abstract

This research aimed to examine the spatial distribution of road traffic accidents in Budapest, Hungary. The primary objective was to identify the factors associated with traffic accidents on the city's transportation network and to determine the locations of the most frequent accidents during peak and off-peak hours. A quantitative methodology was employed in this study, utilizing a dataset of recent accidents that occurred between 2019 and 2021, classified into peak and off-peak incidents. The data was analyzed using Python software and Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) tools for big data analytics. These programs enabled the creation of spatial maps of the study area and the identification of accident spots based on latitude and longitude information. A decision tree classification approach was used in the machine-learning method implemented with Python software. Additionally, the dataset file was uploaded to QGIS, which applied the heatmap (Kernel Density Estimation) algorithm to identify accident hotspots. The study findings revealed that the city center was the most common location for accidents overall, with peak and off-peak times, lanes, and days of the week investigated as potential contributing factors. The target variable was the number of accidents involving serious and minor injuries, which were found to be significantly associated with the identified accidents in this study.