Why estimate direct and indirect casualties from war? The rule of proportionality and casualty estimates

Abstract

This chapter considers the intersection of the Rule of Proportionality with demographic expertise. The concept of just war is reviewed and its application to prospectively choosing targets is examined. The author presents a framework for estimating excess deaths caused by war in a population, and discusses methodological and data issues surrounding such estimations. Work on the 1991 Persian Gulf War is presented to illustrate the application of the framework. Finally, the Rule of Proportionality is revisited, and a discussion of the application of demographic expertise and tools to the Rule of Proportionality are presented. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.