Detection and attribution of climate change

Abstract

This chapter is intended for nonspecialists in climate science and provides basic and elementary background on our current understanding of climate change, in particular the phrase global warming that has attracted the public attention in recent years. We begin by outlining the basic physics involved in conjunction with the competing influences of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols on the climate system. Undoubtedly, future state of the climate system can only be obtained by running climate models in supercomputers. A challenge for climate modeling community is to demonstrate credibility for the model-simulated future climate scenario. This can only be accomplished if the model simulations also detect a climate change signal as observed for the current climate. Further, confidence in climate model-projected future changes is enhanced only if we understand the interactive processes that make up the future climate system. Such a systematic approach boosts the reliability of the projected changes and any impact assessment studies then provides pathways for making meaningful policy changes.