Temporal Percolation of the Susceptible Network in an Epidemic Spreading

Abstract

In this work, we study the evolution of the susceptible individuals during the spread of an epidemic modeled by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process spreading on the top of complex networks. Using an edge-based compartmental approach and percolation tools, we find that a time-dependent quantity ΦS(t), namely, the probability that a given neighbor of a node is susceptible at time t, is the control parameter of a node void percolation process involving those nodes on the network not-reached by the disease. We show that there exists a critical time tc above which the giant susceptible component is destroyed. As a consequence, in order to preserve a macroscopic connected fraction of the network composed by healthy individuals which guarantee its functionality, any mitigation strategy should be implemented before this critical time tc. Our theoretical results are confirmed by extensive simulations of the SIR process. © 2012 Valdez et al.