Future changes in surface ozone over the Mediterranean Basin in the framework of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx)

Abstract

In the framework of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx; http://charmex.lsce.ipsl.fr, last access: 22 June 2018) project, we study the evolution of surface ozone over the Mediterranean Basin (MB) with a focus on summertime over the time period 2000-2100, using the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) outputs from 13 models. We consider three different periods (2000, 2030 and 2100) and the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) to study the changes in the future ozone and its budget. We use a statistical approach to compare and discuss the results of the models. We discuss the behavior of the models that simulate the surface ozone over the MB. The shape of the annual cycle of surface ozone simulated by ACCMIP models is similar to the annual cycle of the ozone observations, but the model values are biased high. For the summer, we found that most of the models overestimate surface ozone compared to observations over the most recent period (1990-2010). Compared to the reference period (2000), we found a net decrease in the ensemble mean surface ozone over the MB in 2030 (2100) for three RCPs: ĝ'14 % (ĝ'38 %) for RCP2.6, ĝ'9 % (ĝ'24 %) for RCP4.5 and ĝ'10 % (ĝ'29 %) for RCP6.0. The surface ozone decrease over the MB for these scenarios is much more pronounced than the relative changes of the global tropospheric ozone burden. This is mainly due to the reduction in ozone precursors and to the nitrogen oxide (NOx Combining double low line NO + NO2)-limited regime over the MB. For RCP8.5, the ensemble mean surface ozone is almost constant over the MB from 2000 to 2100. We show how the future climate change and in particular the increase in methane concentrations can offset the benefits from the reduction in emissions of ozone precursors over the MB.