Liquefied Natural Gas Ship Route Planning: A Risk Analysis Approach

Abstract

We present a risk analysis approach for selecting alternate routes between liquefaction and re-gasification terminals. Due to lack of data related to incidents directly affecting LNG vessels as a result of the impressive historical safety records of the LNG industry, some parameters required for our risk analysis are estimated from a closely related hazmat cargo, Crude Oil. Our formulation is then used to solve a problem instance, using real-life data. Our results suggest: i) Depending on managerial preference, an alternate route with shorter distance may not necessarily be the vessel route of choice; ii) Risk analysis approach provides an insight into selection of a voyage route, taking into consideration activities (terrorism, or pirate attacks, or otherwise) that have been historically associated with alternate LNG vessel routes.