Weighted Moving Average of Forecasting Method for Predicting Bitcoin Share Price using High Frequency Data: A Statistical Method in Financial Cryptocurrency Technology

Abstract

See, stats, and : https : / / www. researchgate. net / publication / 322640666 Weighted Method High : A . . . . Article DOI : 10 . 22161 / ijaers . 5 . 1 . 11 CITATIONS 0 READS 137 2 , including : Some : Islamic : Comparison Computational Nashirah Universiti 23 SEE All . The . Abstract— Bitcoin is a type of cryptocurrency that implemented decentralized digital currency method . The transaction is monitored and validated by peer - to peer system using hash programming . These transactions are verified by network nodes through the use of cryptography and recorded in a public distributed ledger called a blockchain . The objective of this study is to forecast the Bitcoin exchange rate using weighted moving average method . Data selected in this study are selected hourly from 14 th December 2017 until 18 th December 2017 . The forecasting method is using weighted moving average . Then , the validity of the forecasting model is validated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) calculation . Results indicated mean absolute percentage error is 0 . 72% . Therefore , the moving average method is considered as reliable forecasting method for Bitcoin exchange rate . The finding of this study will help investors to make best decision regarding suitable portfolio for their investment . Keywords— Bitcoin , Financial technology , Forecasting method , Statistical approach , Cryptocurrency I . INTRODUCTION Bitcoin is a type of cryptocurrency that implemented decentralized digital currency method . The transaction is monitored and validated by peer - to peer system using hash programming . These transactions are verified by network nodes through the use of cryptography and recorded in a public distributed ledger called a blockchain . Bitcoin become popular when the price for 1 Bitcoin was aggressively increased . This condition was attracted more investors to invest in Bitcoin cryptocurrency transaction . Bitcoin was developed by Satoshi Nakamoto . Bitcoin is a crypto - currency based on open - source software and protocols that operates in peer - to - peer networks as a private irreversible payment mechanism . The protocol