Analysis of energy strategies to halve CO2 emissions by the year 2050 with a regionally disaggregated world energy model

Abstract

There is growing attention to the regulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to mitigate the global warming, and the target of 50% reduction of GHG emissions by the year 2050 has been discussed in concrete as a long-term goal. The authors have been revising the regionally disaggregated world energy model which is formulated as a large scale linear optimization model from the aspect of nuclear and photovoltaic power generation technologies and calculate the optimal energy system development path over the time horizon with the CO 2 emissions constraints. The obtained results indicate that the world electricity in 2050 is to be mainly provided by natural gas-fired power plants and LWR (light-water reactors), and that in 2100 is to be done by FBR (fast breeder reactors) and IGCC with CCS. The results also indicate that the relative importance of major technologies, such as FBR and CCS, may differ significantly due to the regional availabilities of energy resources and CO2 storage capacities. © 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.