An econometric model of Sudan. Simulation experiment of growth prospects

Abstract

A 42-equation model of Sudan is developed to provide an empirical description of the structural characteristics of the economy and forecast its growth pattern. It features stable demand functions for total consumption and imports. The supply side is represented by equations for value added by sector - with an input-output interpretation - and an aggregate production function. Wages follow productivity and prices are determined by monetary effects and domestic cost influences. Emphasized are the role of primary products in the export sector (especially cotton and oil seeds) and the role of machinery imports in capital formation. Policy simulations indicate that real GNP - while its composition will remain basically stable - will double by 1985, growing at 6% per annum. Employment will grow at 4.7%; annually while the rate of inflation will be around the 5%; mark. © 1975.