Estimation of Upper Bound Forest Protection Expenditures under Uncertainty

Abstract

The impact of different probabilities of avoidable stand loss on the optimal rotation age and the corresponding expected present values (EPVs) of aspen [ Populus] stands in Minnesota is examined in a geographic information system (GIS) framework. The monetary costs associated with reducing such probabilities over time are also estimated. Aspen stands were examined because this species forms the most dominant cover type in Minnesota and provides almost half of the statewide timber harvest. Integrating GIS technology with the aspen model highlighted spatial components of the overall analysis. The model output combined with the spatial data provided information about potential future investments that can be used to protect aspen stands from such catastrophes as fire and disease. Given the current shortages and the age class imbalance in aspen supply, and the relative increase in aspen demand over time in Minnesota, the need to invest in protection of this cover type is further enhanced.