Expert judgment about uncertainty: Bayesian decision making in realistic settings

Abstract

This article reviews Bayesian research on experts' judgments about uncertainty in the real world. In the first part of the article, six central questions are raised concerning (1) the economic value of probability statements, (2) the use of actuarial versus subjective probabilities, (3) individual versus consensus probability assessments, (4) the role of computers in probability assessment (5) the use of data by assessors, and (6) expertise and the training of individuals to become experts, and laboratory evidence relevant to these questions is discussed. In the second part of the article these questions serve as a framework for reviewing the literature on experts' assessments of uncertainty in four separate areas of applied research, the military, meterology, medicine, and business. © 1975.