Global Environmental Change Assessment

Abstract

Summary: Looks at risk assessment via GEC, features of current assessments, GEC and risk assessment, decision making, and future research directions. Types of GEC risks are those that result from intensification of current resource management and those that result from use of innovative technologies. These two may be placed against those that are universal in nature and those that are local. Perspectives: engineering, cognitive, institutional, and human ecology. These in turn can value attributed by elitism, utilitarianism, libertarianism, and egalitarianism. Methods: extrapolation, heuristic modeling (e.g., fault-tree), and reasoning by analogy (e.g., dose/response). Where RA and GEC meet and differ: 1) we may not be able to call upon experience (e.g., extrapolation fails) 2) focus on means vs. thresholds not clear in climate change 3) extrapolation can't accommodate surprise 4) newer work in vulnerability is applicable to GEC 5) RA not universal enough, need more capability in slow-onset problems 6) top-down methods (e.g., GCM) are not useful for a variety of tasks 7) lack of knowledge about the third world 8) need to better identify decision makers and public 9) movement towards contextuality is useful but we need more 10) risk communication work and risk perception work is useful 11) need to be policy oriented