Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Using modern time series analysis techniques to predict ENSO events from the SOI time series

  • Salisbury J
  • Wimbush M
  • 2


    Mendeley users who have this article in their library.
  • N/A


    Citations of this article.


We analyze the monthly 1866–2000 Southern Os- cillation Index (SOI) data to determine: 1) whether the SOI data are sufficiently noise-free that use- ful predictions can be made from them, and 2) in particular, whether future ENSO events can be pre- dicted from the SOI data. The “Hilbert-EMD” technique is used to aid the analy- sis. This new frequency-time algorithm, based on the Hilbert transform, may be applied to time series for which the con- ventional assumptions of linearity and stationarity may not apply. With the aid of the EMD procedure, a cleaner represen- tation of ENSO dynamics is obtained from the SOI data. A polynomial function is then used to predict SOI values. Using only the data from January 1866 through December 1996, this prediction correctly indicated a warm event in 1997–1998 and a cold event in 1999. Using all the data (through December 2000), this prediction shows no strong ENSO events (positive or negative) during the time period January 2001 through December 2004.

Get free article suggestions today

Mendeley saves you time finding and organizing research

Sign up here
Already have an account ?Sign in

Find this document

There are no full text links


  • J. I. Salisbury

  • M. Wimbush

Cite this document

Choose a citation style from the tabs below

Save time finding and organizing research with Mendeley

Sign up for free