Between 1995 and 2008, Thailand’s energy efficiency programs produced an estimated total of 8,369 GWh/year energy savings and 1,471 MW avoided peak power. Despite these impressive saving figures, relatively little future scenario analysis is available to policy makers. Before the 2008 global financial crisis, electricity planners forecasted 5–6% long-term increases in demand. We explored options for efficiency improvements in Thailand’s residential sector, which consumes more than 20% of Thailand’s total electricity consumption of 150 TWh/year. We constructed baseline and efficient scenarios for the period 2006–2026, for air conditioners, refrigerators, fans, rice cookers, and compact fluorescent light bulbs. We drew on an appliance database maintained by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand’s voluntary labeling program. For the five appliances modeled, the efficiency scenario results in total savings of 12% of baseline consumption after 10 years and 29% of baseline after 20 years. Approximately 80% of savings come from more stringent standards for air conditioners, including phasing out unregulated air conditioner sales within 6 years. Shifting appliance efficiency standards to current best-in-market levels within 6 years produces additional savings. We discuss institutional aspects of energy planning in Thailand that thus far have limited the consideration of energy efficiency as a high-priority resource.
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