Trend analysis of rainfall in North Cyprus

Abstract

Cyprus, as the third largest island in the Mediterranean Sea, is located at the South of Turkey and the West of Syria and Lebanon. With a semiarid climate, rainfall is the only source of water in the island. Therefore, changes in rainfall regime directly affect the water resource management and ecosystem in the island. In order to improve water management strategies, it is vital to investigate the changes in the rainfall pattern. In this study, a nonparametric Mann–Kendall rank correlation method is employed to identify the existence of a linear trend in annual and monthly rainfall series. After application of homogeneity test and filling in missing data, this method is applied to the observed rainfall data from 20 rain-gauge stations that are located in the northern part of the island for the period of 1978–2009. The results show that there is no significant trend in the annual rainfall; however, upward trends in September rainfall and downward trends in March rainfall have been observed in most of the stations. This indicates that there are no significant changes in annual total rainfall; however, there is a shift in monthly rainfall regime.