Two-event models for carcinogenesis: incidence curves for childhood and adult tumors

Abstract

Two classes of two-event models for carcinogenesis are proposed. These models differ from some other multistage theories of carcinogenesis in that mutations areassociated with cell divisions, and the target tissue is allowed to grow in size. The first class of models is entirely stochastic, whereas in the second class of models, both deterministic and stochastic elements are involved. The incidence curves for childhood and adult cancers generated by these models are exhibited. Tests of the models against data were not undertaken. However, with the proper choice of parameters, these models generate incidence curves with the qualitative features of the curves seen in many common human carcinomas. Moreover the model proposed here for embryonal tumors is not distinguishable from the two-mutation model of Knudson et al. [6, 10, 11] on the basis of available data. © 1979.