Vegetation succession in lakes of West Connemara, Ireland: comparing predicted and actual changes

Abstract

Abstract. Changes in the vegetation of lakes and wetlands were investigated over a period of 18 years. It was assumed that changes in vegetation were related to changes in agricultural land use resulting in increased phosphate levels in surface waters. Data were collected in 1975, 1988 and 1993. Multivariate techniques were used to relate changes in vegetation to changes in environmental factors. With the use of a Markovian chain model, vegetation development was projected into the future. Projections based on vegetation dynamics between 1975 and 1988 were compared with actual changes in the vegetation. The vegetation dynamics appeared stable on a regional scale but quite dynamic on a local scale. A continuous decline in species diversity was noted as well as an overall increase of phosphate level. However, only minor changes in vegetation could be attributed to this increase of phosphate. Major changes were a result of fluctuations in water level. These changes coincide with periods of drier and wetter climate. Because of the fluctuating nature of these changes, predicted vegetation change did deviate from the observed change.