Chapter 2.11 Dispersion modelling of the concentrations of the fine particulate matter in Europe

Abstract

Numerical results are presented on the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 over Europe on a spatial resolution of 30 km, and in most of Fennoscandia (comprising Scandinavia and Finland) on a finer resolution of 5 km. The results include daily, and partly also hourly, averages for the whole year of 2000 and in addition, a monthly period in 1999. The computations were performed using the SILAM dispersion modelling system based on a 3-D Lagrangian Monte-Carlo particle model, which can treat the aerosol size spectrum using either a bin or a modal approach. The emission data for Europe were obtained from the EMEP inventory for the year 2000, and a finer scale (5 km) emission inventory was compiled for the Fennoscandia region. The meteorological input data were produced using the numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM (the Finnish variant, version 5.2.1). The results computed up to date include primary aerosols; consisting mainly of black and organic carbon, mineral dust, sea salt, and sulphates. We have evaluated the numerical predictions against observational data of the EMEP measurement network, and the data of more detailed field campaigns that were conducted within the EU-BIOFOR project; these also include size-segregated aerosol measurements. The overall agreement of predictions and measurements is fairly good, although there are problems in predicting the secondary organic aerosol and natural dust. The Europe-wide results were also compared with the corresponding computations by the EMEP model, which has a resolution of 50 km. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.