What difference did it make?

Abstract

Western governments counted on intelligence's assessments of Soviet military power, present and future. Initially these were mixtures of accuracy and exaggeration, with important effects on policy. Intelligence's quality subsequently improved, and Western defence procurement was kept in some contact with reality. Something of this may have been true on the Soviet side, in its much easier task of studying Western power. On the more important assessment of Soviet intentions, by contrast, Western intelligence was never able to develop reliable sources at the centre of the Soviet regime, and its contributions were secondary and confirmatory; while Soviet intelligence for its part selected and presented reports to emphasize the received views of Western hostility and threats. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.