Fuzzy logic modeling of surface ozone concentrations

Abstract

Due to the complex relationships and the necessity for forecasts in atmospheric studies, air pollution modeling is a task for which fuzzy logic methods are amicably suited. This research investigates the ability to predict surface ozone concentration with the use of an automated fuzzy logic method, termed modified learning from examples (MLFE). Hourly ozone concentrations during summer months in the city of Edmonton are predicted with MLFE models and the results are compared to models used by Environment Canada. The root mean square error, mean absolute error and scatter plots are used to compare the results of the MLFE, CHRONOS and CANFIS models. The newly developed model captures the trends in ozone concentrations, and based on the statistical comparisons, the MLFE consistently shows good agreement with the measured data. The MLFE model compares favourably with CHRONOS and CANFIS and is easier to implement. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.