On the relationship between weak states and terrorism

Abstract

This study explored recent claims of a non-significant relationship between weak (failed and failing) states and terrorism. Openly available terrorism data and state classification from stable to weak using a failed state index (FSI) were analyzed using inferential statistics. It was hypothesized that weak states endure a higher incidence of fatal terrorism than all other states, irrespective of the presence of major terrorist groups. Almost 50% of weak states experienced fatal terrorist attacks corresponding to a significant odds ratio exceeding 3:1 compared with other states. This increased to almost 5:1 when states where selected according to specific FSI sub-indicators involving people displacement, group grievance, economic development and security apparatus. Weak states with relatively stronger economic and human development performance were also more likely to contain major terrorist groups than other weak states. Contrary to recent claims, several quantifiable relationships between state fragility and terrorism exist. © 2009 Government of Canada.