An optimal model output calibration algorithm suitable for objective temperature forecasting

Abstract

An optimal model output calibration (MOC) algorithm suitable for surface air temperature forecasts was tested with the National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). Numerical forecast experiments were conducted for six major urban centers in the Tennessee Valley, BNA, CHA, HSV, MEM, TRI, and TYS, over the period of 27 June to 30 July 1997. Forecasts of 2-m air temperature out to 72 h were produced based on RMS runs initialized at 0000 UTC. Performance of the MOC was assessed using the measures BIAS, MAE, and rmse relative to RSM. A skill core was calculated to quantify the improvement of refined RSM predictions over those of nonadjusted RSM. Results demonstrated that the forecast skill of the RSM was significantly improved with the use of the MOC.