Abductive fallacies with agent-based modeling and system dynamics

Abstract

Increasing usage of computer simulation as a method of pursuing science makes methodological reflection immanently important. After discussing relevant philosophical positions Winsberg's view of simulation modeling is adapted to conceptualize simulation modeling as an abductive way of doing science. It is proposed that two main presuppositions determine the outcome of a simulation: theory and methodology. The main focus of the paper is on the analysis of the role of simulation methodologies in simulation modeling. The fallacy of applying an inadequate simulation methodology to a given simulation task is dubbed 'abductive fallacy'. In order to facilitate a superior choice of simulation methodology three respects are proposed to compare System Dynamics and Agent-based Modeling: structure, behavior and emergence. These espects are analyzed on the level of the methodology itself and verified in case studies of the WORLD3-model and the Sugarscape model. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2009.