This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offer a computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output. © Author(s) 2012.
CITATION STYLE
Smith, P. J., Beven, K. J., Weerts, A. H., & Leedal, D. (2012). Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(8), 2783–2799. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2783-2012
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