Aligning Simulation Models of Biological Attacks Contact : Aligning Simulation Models of Biological Attacks

Abstract

We aligned two fundamentally different models of disease transmission after a bioterrorist attack: a multi-agent model (BioWar) and the conventional Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. The purpose of this alignment is part of a greater validation process for BioWar. We conducted two model alignment studies based on smallpox and anthrax attack simulations. From these two studies we were able to show that, at the minimum, the epidemiological curves produced by the two models were approximately equivalent, both in overall and the time course of mortality. Subtle differences on the model results revealed the impact of heterogeneous mixing in the spread and the progression of a disease. Based on this foundation, we will be able to further investigate the policy responses against the biological attacks by improving heterogeneous properties of agents, which cannot be simulated in a SIR model.