Applications of phenological models to predict the future carbon sequestration potential of boreal forests

Abstract

Changes in the duration of the photosynthetically active period strongly influence the changes in the carbon sequestration potential of boreal forests under climatic warming. In this paper, current theories on the effects of environmental variables such as spring air and soil temperature, photoperiod and chilling temperatures on the timing and initiation of photosynthesis in boreal deciduous and coniferous trees are discussed. Different dynamic phenological modeling approaches are reviewed, and model simulations are utilized to demonstrate model predictions under changing climatic conditions. A process-based forest ecosystem model is applied to estimate the relative importance of the duration of the photosynthetically active period on the amount of annual gross primary production and net primary production of boreal coniferous forests. All applied modeling approaches predict an increasing duration of the photosynthetically active period as a result of climatic warming. However, the magnitude of the response to increasing temperature varies between models and therefore affects the predictions of the changes in production.