The Arctic predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-interannual timescales (APPOSITE) data set

Abstract

Recent decades have seen significant developments in seasonal-to-interannual timescale climate prediction capabilities. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had not been assessed. This paper describes a multi- 5 model predictability experiment which was run as part of the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Inter-annual Timescales (APPOSITE) project. The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable. In order to achieve this, a coordinated set of idealised initial-value predictability experiments, with seven general circulation models, was conducted. This was the first model 10 intercomparison project designed to quantify the predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to inter-annual timescales. Here we present a description of the archived data set (which is available at the British Atmospheric Data Centre) and an update of the project's results. Although designed to address Arctic predictability, this data set could also be used to assess the predictability of other regions and modes of climate vari15 ability on these timescales, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.