A data based mechanistic real-time flood forecasting module for NFFS FEWS

Abstract

Abstract. The data based mechanistic (DBM) approach for identifying and estimating rainfall to level, and level to level models has been shown to perform well for flood forecasting in several studies. The DELFT-FEWS open shell operational flood forecasting system provides a framework linking hydrological/meteorological real-time data, real-time forecast models, and a human/computer interaction interface. This infrastructure is used by the UK National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS) and the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) among others. The open shell nature of the FEWS framework has been specifically designed to make it easy to add new forecasting models written as FEWS modules. This paper shows the development of the DBM forecast model as a FEWS module and presents results for the Eden catchment (Cumbria UK) as a case study.