Dissent and Repression in the World-System: A Model of Future Dynamics

Abstract

Our understanding and forecasting of dissent and repression have been hampered by the lack of a macrosystemic and dynamic approach. While scholars have acknowledged that dissent and repression in nations affect, and are affected by, global factors, most studies have been national in scope. And while scholars have acknowledged that the two phenomena are parts of a wider dynamic system of variables, affecting and being affected by these variables over time, most studies have employed only a few variables using cross-sectional methods. We address these deficiencies with a dynamic model based on a modified version of world-systems theory. We first examine the trajectories of dissent and repression in core and periphery zones. We then subject the basic model to endogenous shocks to discover the master variables of the system. The implications of the findings are then discussed.