A dynamical systems perspective on the absence of debris associated with the disappearance of flight MH370

Abstract

The disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 on the morning of the 8 March 2014 is one of the great mysteries of our time. Perhaps the most relevant aspect of this mystery is that not a single piece of debris from the aircraft has been found. Difficulties in the search efforts, due to the uncertainty in the plane's final impact point and the time that has passed since the accident, bring the question on how the debris has scattered in an always moving ocean, for which there are multiple data sets that do not uniquely determine its state. Our approach to this problem is based on the use of Lagrangian Descriptors (LD), a novel mathematical tool coming from dynamical systems theory that identifies dynamic barriers and coherent structures governing transport. By combining publicly available information supplied by different ocean data sources with these mathematical techniques, we are able to assess the spatio-temporal state of the ocean in the priority search area at the time of impact and the following weeks. Using this information we propose a revised search strategy by showing why one might not have expected to find debris in some large search areas targeted by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA), and determining regions where one might have expected impact debris to be located and that have not been subjected to any exploration.