Fertility and Modernization: The Role of Urbanization in Developing Countries

Abstract

We empirically investigate the theoretically predicted change in human reproductive behavior in developing countries alongside modernization. Using urbanization as a modernization indicator is appealing and provides a large sample size in both countries and years covered. However, recent research on the causes of urbanization demands a refined view of the phenomenon. We therefore base our analysis on qualified urbanization, namely interactions with slum incidence and export diversification. In panel regressions we find evidence that the impact on fertility differs significantly in lower than in higher quality urbanization processes, suggesting that the presence of skill-intensive jobs is crucial in the interplay. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.