page 4 | March 2007 MICS NEWSLETTER
Do you believe that a robot can
be faster than a human to detect
a ringing phone? Play and bet on
the outcome of MICS projects and
enter the world of predictive mar-
kets with Marmix...
Marmix is a website that enables
to predict - with a strong probabil-
ity - the outcome of various MICS
projects. Based on the theory of
the predictive markets, it has been
forEcaSTING ThE fuTurE
WITh MarMIx
Marmix was therefore adapted to
the NCCR MICS, proposing “con-
tracts” on four topics related to the
Centre: avalanches, robots, vehicu-
lar networks and intelligent build-
ings. Two other contracts concern
the RFID technology and mobile
payments.
Launched at the MICS Conference
in October 2006, Marmix counts
around thirty traders today. “We
hope to increase this number with
a better information on this game
and on its purpose”, says Cédric Ga-
nologies and applications. It can be
an extremely useful decision-mak-
ing tool for the MICS community.

The website is only open to the sci-
entists involved in the MICS Centre.
Traders remain totally anonymous.
The more the player knows, the
more likely he is to predict cor-
rectly and win. His objective is to
maximize the value of his portfo-
lio by trading the contracts on the
market with a starting capital in a
virtual currency. The process is then
equivalent to those existing in the
conceived within the
framework of a re-
search project of the
Faculty of the HEC of
the University of Lau-
sanne. Similar to stock
market games, it lets
participants trade on
claims concerning
mobile information
and communication
systems.
“After having designed
Marmix to predict the
results of all sorts of
future events in the
world, we wanted to
see if we could use it
for R&D issues”, explains Cédric Ga-
spoz, a PhD student at the Institut
des systèmes d’information of the
HEC, who designed the website.
spoz. Compared to other studies,
the interest of this predictive mar-
ket is its low cost and its capacity to
forecast the most promising tech-
traditional financial
market. The result is
a permanent poll of
experts who foresee
what will happen
next!
Florence luy
In each one of the
next MIcS News-
letters, we will se-
lect a contract and
present its trends,
commented by a
scientist.
Further information:
cedric.gaspoz@unil.ch
Marmix website:
http://marmix.mics.org/
Marmix allows to bet on the future of a project just like at the stock exchange