Full-Spectrum Portfolio and Diversity Analysis of Energy Technologies

Abstract

Energy diversity and security are evaluated using Stirling's Multi-criteria Diversity Analysis (MDA) as well as more classical Markowitz Mean Variance Portfolio (MVP) theory. Each of these approaches is capable of producing an Efficient Frontier (EF) that shows optimal generating mixes-those that maximize performance (i.e. minimize cost) while minimizing risk or uncertainty (i.e. maximizing diversity). MDA covers the full spectrum of "incertitude," reaching into areas where little is known about the range of possible outcomes, let alone their probabilities. However, MDA does not exploit statistical information that is available in certain parts of the risk spectrum where historic means, variances, and co-variances of outcomes are known as well as are used to make inferences about the future. MVP operates precisely in this space, although, like other capital market models, its prescriptive value rests on the idea that the past is the best guide to the future and that. As such MVP can be blind to unforeseen events that create future structural change. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.