Future forecasting with LEAP

Abstract

A rapidly changing business environment has caused numerous firms to adopt some form of environmental assessment as part of their strategic planning process. Extrapolative techniques and trend analysis are useful when forecasting for the short-term and in comparatively stable environments. Futuristic methodologies are appropriate in turbulent environments with long-term planning requirements. The Likelihood of Events Assessment Process (LEAP), a new method of forecasting developed by the author, is explained in detail using examples from a recent study which used top level life insurance executives to predict the relative likelihood of occurrence of planning dates for a set of events in the socio- political environment of business. © 1982.