Future of Transatlantic Security Relations

Abstract

After the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent military action in Afghanistanand Iraq, is the transatlantic community headed towards a divorce ofEurope and the United States? Or, quite the opposite, are we witnessing adawn of a new, revitalised, globally active western community? The articlefocuses on possible evolution of the transatlantic community, and aims atjudging various future arrangements of security and defence area againstthe background of realist approach of international relations. The analysisproceeds in four steps. First of all, the realist theoretical background is laiddown, as compared to other possible approaches, including the one ofRobert Kagan. Self-interest and the crucial importance of security of aninternational actor are presented as basic principles. Secondly, the militarycapabilities of the United States of America and Europe are compared, asthe gap between them justifies the concept of strong America and weakEurope. The third part presents four possible scenarios of futuretransatlantic relations. Since the position of the United States is to beconsidered constant for foreseeable future, the article closely examines therelationship between NATO and the EU. The structure on which thescenarios are based combines two processes: the process of Europeanintegration in security and defence, and the evolution of transatlanticcohesion. Military capabilities, effectiveness of political leadership, and acapacity for global action are considered to be the substantial aspects forthe evaluation of the balance of power. Finally, the scenarios are comparedwith the assumptions of the realist theory. The results differ substantiallyfrom Kagan's who claims that the strengthening of Europe will result in acloser transatlantic community. The realist approach foresees either a closealliance based on subordination of Europe to the United States in case ofsubstantial external threat, or a strong Europe opposing the power of theUnited States.